Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system

Paleoclimatic records indicate a decline of vegetation cover in the Western Sahara at the end of the African Humid Period (about 5,500 years before present). Modelling studies have shown that this phenomenon may be interpreted as a critical transition that results from a bifurcation in the atmosphere-vegetation system. However, the stability properties of this system are closely linked to climate variability and depend on the climate model and the methods of analysis. By coupling the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, with the simple dynamic vegetation model VECODE, we assess previous methods for the detection of multiple equilibria, and demonstrate their limitations. In particular, a stability diagram can yield misleading results because of spatial interactions, and the system's steady state and its dependency on initial conditions are affected by atmospheric variability and nonlinearities. In addition, we analyse the implications of climate variability for the abruptness of a vegetation decline. We find that a vegetation collapse can happen at different locations at different times. These collapses are possible despite large and uncorrelated climate variability. Because of the nonlinear relation between vegetation dynamics and precipitation the green state is initially stabilised by the high variability. When precipitation falls below a critical threshold, the desert state is stabilised as variability is then also decreased. © 2011 The Author(s)

Proof firm downsizing and diagnosis-specific disability pensioning in Norway

<br>Background: We wanted to investigate if firm downsizing is related to an increased rate of disability pensions among the former employed, especially for those with musculoskeletal and psychiatric diagnoses, and for those having to leave the firm.</br> <br>Methods: Statistics Norway provided a linked file with demographic information and all social security grants from the National Insurance Administration for 1992–2004 for all inhabitants in Norway. Our sample was aged 30–55 years in 1995, being alive, employed and not having a disability pension at the end of 2000. Downsizing was defined as percent change in number of employed per firm from 1995 to end 2000. Employment data were missing for 25.6% of the sample.</br> <br>Results: Disability pension rates in the next four years were 25% higher for those experiencing a 30-59% downsizing than for those not experiencing a reduction of the workforce. 1-29% and 60-100% downsizing did not have this effect. Stayers following down-sizing had higher disability pension rates than leavers. What we have called complex musculoskeletal and psychiatric diagnoses were relatively most common.</br> <br>Conclusion: Moderate downsizing is followed by a significant increase in disability pension rates in the following four years, often with complex musculoskeletal and psychiatric diagnoses.</br&gt

On the stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system in the Sahara/Sahel region

A conceptual model has been developed for the analysis of atmosphere-vegetation interaction in subtropical deserts. The model can exhibit multiple stable states-in the system: a "desert" equilibrium with low precipitation and absent vegetation and a "green" equilibrium with moderate precipitation and permanent vegetation cover. The conceptual model is applied to interpret the results of two climate-vegetation models: a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-biome model and a simple hox model. In both applications, two stable states exist for the western Sahara/Sahel region for the present-day climate, and the only green equilibrium is found for the mid-Holocene climate. The latter agrees well with paleoreconstructions of Sahara/Sahel climate and vegetation. It is shown that for present-day climate the green equilibrium is less probable than the desert equilibrium, and this explains the existence of the Sahara desert as it is today. The difference in albedo between the desert and vegetation cover appears to be the main parameter that controls an existence of multiple stable states. The Charney's mechanism of self-stabilization of subtropical deserts is generalized by accounting for atmospheric hydrology, the heat and moisture exchange at the side boundaries, and taking into account the dynamic properties of the surface. The generalized mechanism explains the self-stabilization of both desert and vegetation in the western Sahara/Sahel region, The role of surface roughness in climate-vegetation interaction is shown to be of secondary importance in comparison with albedo. Furthermore, for the high albedo, precipitation increases with increasing roughness while, for the low albedo, the opposite is found

Proper Motions of H2O Masers in the Water Fountain Source IRAS 19190+1102

We report on the results of two epochs of Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) observations of the 22 GHz water masers toward IRAS 19190+1102. The water maser emission from this object shows two main arc-shaped formations perpendicular to their NE-SW separation axis. The arcs are separated by ~280 mas in position, and are expanding outwards at an angular rate of 2.35 mas/yr. We detect maser emission at velocities between -53.3 km/s to +78.0 km/s and there is a distinct velocity pattern where the NE masers are blueshifted and the SW masers are redshifted. The outflow has a three-dimensional outflow velocity of 99.8 km/s and a dynamical age of about 59 yr. A group of blueshifted masers not located along the arcs shows a change in velocity of more than 35 km/s between epochs, and may be indicative of the formation of a new lobe. These observations show that IRAS 19190+1102 is a member of the class of "water fountain"' pre-planetary nebulae displaying bipolar structureComment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, corrected typo

Transitivity of the climate–vegetation system in a warm climate

To date, the transitivity of the global system has been analysed for late Quaternary (glacial, interglacial, and present-day) climate. Here, we extend this analysis to a warm, almost ice-free climate with a different configuration of continents. We use the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology to analyse the stability of the climate system under early Eocene and pre-industrial conditions. We initialize the simulations by prescribing either dense forests or bare deserts on all continents. Starting with desert continents, an extended desert remains in central Asia in the early Eocene climate. Starting with dense forest coverage, the Asian desert is much smaller, while coastal deserts develop in the Americas which appear to be larger than in the simulations with initially bare continents. These differences can be attributed to differences in the large-scale tropical circulation. With initially forested continents, a stronger dipole in the 200 hPa velocity potential develops than in the simulation with initially bare continents. This difference prevails when vegetation is allowed to adjust to and interact with climate. Further simulations with initial surface conditions that differ in the region of the Asian desert only indicate that local feedback processes are less important in the development of multiple states. In the interglacial, pre-industrial climate, multiple states develop only in the Sahel region. There, local climate–vegetation interaction seems to dominate